Colin J. Campbell , Ph.D. Oxford, (born in Berlin, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007 . The consequences of this are uncertain but drastic, due to the world's dependence on fossil fuels for the vast majority of its energy. His theories have received wide attention, but are disputed by some in the oil industry and have not significantly changed U.S. governmental energy policies at this time. In order to deal with declining global oil production, he has proposed the Rimini protocol.
Influential papers by Campbell include The Coming Oil Crisis , which he wrote with Jean Laherrère in 1998, and is credited with convincing the International Energy Agency of the coming peak; and The End of Cheap Oil , which was published the same year in Scientific American . He was referred to as a "doomsayer" in the The Wall Street Journal in 2004.
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas founded by Campbell has been gaining recognition in the recent years. They have organized yearly international conferences since 2002. The next is scheduled in Denver, Colorado on 11-13 October 2009. The previous one was in Sacramento, California on 21-23 September 2008.
Background
The most famous peak oil petrogeologist is M. King Hubbert, who predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970. Hubbert's theories became popular during the 1973 energy crisis, and during the 1979 energy crisis when even the United States Secretary of Energy, James Schlesinger announced, as he left his post that year, that 'Mid-East production is unlikely to expand much, if at all, and is unlikely to drop below current levels'. (Wall Street Journal 1979). In December 2000 Colin Campbell warned in a public lecture held at the Clausthal University of Technology that
'There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil. A stock market crash seems inevitable, as some investment managers are now telling us. . The global market may collapse because of high transport costs and global recession. Self-sufficiency will become a priority. '
Current debate
Further information: Predicting the timing of peak oilGlobal oil discovery peaked in 1964 , and since the early 1980s oil production has outpaced new discoveries. The world currently consumes oil at the rate of 84 million barrel per day (31 billion barrels/year, or 151 m³/s), and consumption is rising, particularly in China.
According to Campbell:
- There are no new potential oil fields sufficiently large to reduce this future energy crisis.
- The reported oil reserves of many OPEC countries are inflated, to increase their quotas, or improve their chance of getting a loan from the World Bank.
- The practice of gradually adding new discoveries to a country's list of proven reserves , instead of all at once, artificially inflates the current rate of discovery.
In 1989 Campbell claimed that there would be a shortage towards the late 1990's. In 1990 he claimed that 1998 would represent a 'depletion midpoint' These early assessments were, however, according to Campbell himself, 'based on public domain data, before the degree of misreporting by industry and governments was appreciated.' Since that time Campbell has been predicting that the peak of oil production will cause a catastrophic worldwide economic depression.
One theory, held by many in the oil industry and the United States Department of Energy, is that oil production will continue to increase, due to technological advances and the geopolitical pressure caused by rising oil prices. They argue that:
- Much of the world's oil reserves come from areas that have not been fully explored because they are politically unstable, like Russia and Iraq. Nobody knows how much oil is really left in those areas, and economic pressure could result in a new exploration boom.
- New methods of extracting oil from existing fields are currently being developed. This may even expand the definition of "oil": Hydrocarbons exist in shale and tarry sands, and as a result companies like Exxon predict that there are up to 14 trillion barrels (2,200 km³) of exploitable hydrocarbons left in the world, which could fuel the oil industry for another century.
The U.S. Department Of Energy report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management , often referred to as the Hirsch Report , proposes an urgent mitigation approach to deal with the possibility of oil production going into decline in the immediate future.
It states: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
The current debate in the U.S. revolves around energy policy, and whether to shift funding to increasing conservation measures, fuel efficiency, and other energy sources such as wind power, solar power, hydropower, and nuclear power. Economist Michael Lynch claims Campbell's research data is sloppy. He points to the date of the coming peak, which was initially projected to occur by 1995, but has now been pushed back to 2007. However, Campbell and his supporters insist that when the peak occurs is not as important as the realization that the peak is coming.
Personal background
Campbell has over 40 years of experience in the oil industry. He was educated at St Paul's School (the public school in London) and Wadham College, Oxford (BA Geology 1954, MA and DPhil 1957), and has worked as a petroleum geologist in the field, as a manager, and as a consultant. He has been employed by Oxford University, Texaco, British Petroleum, Amoco, Shenandoah Oil, Norsk Hydro, and Fina, and has worked with the Bulgarian and Swedish governments. His writing credits include two books and more than 150 papers.
More recently, he founded the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, is affiliated with Petroconsultants in Geneva, is a trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London. He conducts research on the oil peak, and he also tries to build public awareness of the issue, which includes lecturing extensively. He addressed a committee of the British House of Commons, and officials from investment and automotive companies. He has appeared in the documentary films The End of Suburbia , Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash , and PEAK OIL – Imposed by Nature .
Quotes
But it isn't this peak hasn't no real great significance, it is the perception and the vision of the long decline that comes into sight on the other side of the peak. That's really what matters. (speaking on peak oil phenomenon- End of Oil (2005))
See also
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes
- Jean Laherrère
- Thomas Malthus, and the Malthusian catastrophe.
- Dale Allen Pfeiffer
References
- ^ a b Peak Oil CV
- ^ Energy Information Administration - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government.
- ^ National Research Council, Long-range environmental outlook: proceedings of a workshop , November 14-16 1979, p.20.
- ^ C.J. Campbell, Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal, December 2000
- ^ Feasta.org Peak oil timeline
- ^ C.J. Campbell, Evolution of oil assessments.
- ^ C.J. Campbell, Evolution of Oil Assessments
Further reading
- Dire prophecy: as prices soar, doomsayers provoke debate on oil's future, by Jeffrey Ball from The Wall Street Journal , volume 244, number 57, September 21, 2004.
- The end of cheap oil, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère. Scientific American , March 1998.
- The Coming Oil Crisis , by Colin J. Campbell. Independent Publishers Group, April 1, 2004. ISBN 0-906522-11-0.
- The Truth about Oil and the Looming Energy Crisis , by Colin J. Campbell. (booklet; no ISBN)
External links
- Peak Oil - A Turning Point for Mankind (video lecture) by Dr. Colin J. Campbell, at the Clausthal University of Technology, Dec. 2000.
- The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) - official website
- ASPO Ireland (Colin Campbell's Office)
- Colin J. Campbell from the Coming Global Oil Crisis. 2004.
- Colin Campbell interviewed, by Julian Darley. Global Public Media, December 18, 2002.
- ASPO newsletter, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO depletion profiles by country, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- Depletion model, by Dr. Colin J. Campbell.
- ASPO Lisbon Conference 2005
- Speech by Dr. Colin J. Campbell at 'Fuelling the Future' conference, in Kinsale, Ireland, June 2005.
- Global Oil Watch - Breaking Oil &
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Colin J. Campbell, Ph.D. Oxford, (born in Berlin, Germany in 1931) is a retired British petroleum geologist who predicted that oil production would peak by 2007 .
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