Tacit assumptions in introduction
Resolved. Kgrr (talk) 15:56, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
The current introduction reads "Peak oil is the point in time at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically."
This appears to state as fact that petroleum production will reach a peak and then immediately and monotonically decline. This is quite possible, but it is not a fact. For example, production could briefly spike, then drop, then rise again, never quite reaching its earlier peak, but only declining significantly later.
You are quite right ; this entry should be corrected accordingly :-).--Environnement2100 (talk) 23:03, 8 January 2008 (UTC)Similarly, mitigating demand before the peak is neither necessary nor sufficient -- from a strictly logical standpoint -- for keeping availability for dropping.
Before everyone rains hot flaming death upon me, I'm not saying that there is no case for peak oil, or it's "only a theory" or whatever. I'm only saying that the current intro appears to state as fact the case that is in fact only made, and disputed, later on. With that in mind, it might better be tweaked to something more like the following :
"Peak oil is the point in time at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached , after which the maximum rate of production is expected to enter a steady and terminal decline. If global demand does not also decline, the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically."
You could also keep in mind the possibility of several maxima, depending on the economics.--Environnement2100 (talk) 23:03, 8 January 2008 (UTC)Note also "maximum" rate of production. I'm trying to distinguish here between a "soft landing" scenario, in which production declines because demand declines (by some combination of increased energy efficiency and availability of alternatives) and the feared "hard landing", in which demand does not decline but it becomes prohibitively expensive to meet (in which case demand will necessarily decline, but painfully). -Dmh (talk) 01:28, 31 December 2007 (UTC)
The thesis statement does not say anything about the shape of the production rate curve after peak oil. A second peak like Hubbert observed in Coal production is certainly possible due to a new technology. But the observation is that the second peak is lower than the first. I don't see an issue to resolve here.Kgrr (talk) 15:56, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
Y Done
Effects of peaking on major oil producers?
How much of the recent history of the US has happened partially because of reaching an oil production peak in 1970? I mean, three years latter there's a worldwide oil crisis, the oil markets get ALL shook up through the 1970s while the world shifts gears on industrial and economic growth, then in 1980 this happens ,
followed by a flood of oil on the market(I'm starting to think that article is fundamentally flawed). Detroit gets back on track and we really care about the Middle East! Isreal has started looking important for a while... And now we have to figure out what moves to make while China and India grab for more oil, prices are through the roof, we have NO idea what will happen in the Middle East.Are there any sources that talk about these sorts of things authoritatively? There's at least one article that mentions other producers peaking. What happened to the other nations that have peaked and/or become net importers? NJGW (talk) 23:23, 11 January 2008 (UTC)
The US peaked in 1971. The oil crisis was due to an oil embargo on the US and OPEC seizing control over the oil resources. Is there an unresolved issue with the article? Kgrr (talk) 16:02, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
Worldwide
On 7 January 2008, User:Loodog added the worldwide template indicating the article didn't have a worldwide viewpoint and focused only on the U.S. I beg to differ. I think this article has great worldwide perspective, and in fact much more than most other articles on Wikipedia. I don't see the basis for Loodog's edit, so I think the tag should be removed. ~ UBeR (talk) 18:06, 24 January 2008 (UTC)
External Links
There seems to be a ridiculous amount of spam there, and a lot of the links should be removed, especially in the general "websites" category. --TheSeer (TalkĖContribs) 03:05, 31 January 2008 (UTC)
Questions
If there are 1.5 trillion barrels total resource and we have used .5 trillion, .5 trillion are uneconomic to extract and .5 trillion or 500 billion remain; then at a rate of consumption of 85 million barrels a day, the numbr of days remaining till its all gone is 500,000/85 or 5882 days. that brings us to 2024 till the last drop is gone. 69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
How much short of when the last drop of oil is gone, is the last drop of patience with CAFE standards that allow SUV's to be averaged into an automakers fleet rather than broken out to determine fuel efficiency. 69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
Aside from the obvious conclusion that some people aren't going to be able to get theirs at any price in the very short future, and most people aren't going to be able to afford to commute to work in a car using a gasoline engine, doesn't that also affect the use of oil to make plastics, lubricants and other petrochemical products we don't intend to burn.? What happens to electric cars when the electric plants burning fossil fuels to make electricity cease to function?
What happens to our ability to develop alternative energy if people can't use cheap fossil fuels to provide the energy to develop the alternatives. 69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
Factoring in global warming and rising sea levels will all the nuke plants using the oceans to cool their process find themselves underwater, and likewise the wind turbines being placed offshore? Will the greenhouse affect dampen the ardor of those who want to go electric with photovoltaics? 69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
Do biofuels expend more carbon than they save? 69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
What happens to long term solutions if we have already killed everything that walks or crawls or swims in the seas before we get to the solution part?69.39.100.2 (talk) 18:29, 9 February 2008 (UTC)
Hubbert's curve vs. Moore's law
I've been reading a lot of doom and gloom about peak oil, and the worst-case scenarios certainly sound grim, but it seems none of the peak oil experts have a solid handle on Moore's law, other than some recommendations in passing to replace some physical travel with telecommuting (but I have yet to see any discussion of how the economics are shifting with time). Similarly, it seems almost none of the information technology folks who are driving Moore's law know much about peak oil or what they should be doing about it. A large fraction of transportation essentially occurs only (or largely) to move information, either in the form of human brains (personal transporation) or packaged into finished goods (freight transportation). (We manufacture goods in centralized factories primarily to cope with the information and skill demands; but the open sou
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